The Numbers Nobody Cites
The Associated General Contractors of America pegs the shortage at 380,000 to 450,000 workers. The BLS says construction employment has been essentially flat since 2019 while housing starts have tried (and failed) to hit demand. You can't build houses without framers. Nobody is training framers.
Why the Trades Lost 20 Years of Kids
Guidance counselors from 1998 to 2018 told every kid with a pulse to go to college. Vocational programs were shut down or gutted. The generation that would have been journeyman framers by now instead has a marketing degree and $47,000 in student debt.
The Wage Signal Nobody's Reading
Framers in Denver, Phoenix, and Nashville are pulling $38-52/hr as W-2s, plus overtime. That's more than most mid-level office jobs. Nobody in DC talks about this because it doesn't fit the narrative that the trades are 'undervalued.' They're not undervalued anymore. They're understaffed.
What Zoning Reform Doesn't Fix
Even if every city in America upzoned tomorrow, you couldn't build the houses. The permits would sit until 2029 waiting on a crew. Zoning is the political fight. Labor is the actual constraint.
What Actually Helps
Community colleges expanding trades programs. Employer-sponsored apprenticeships. Immigration reform that lets guys who ARE willing to do the work stay legal. And, honestly, parents telling their kid that a two-year apprenticeship is a better bet than a four-year sociology degree.
The Bottom Line
Houses aren't expensive because of zoning. They're expensive because there's nobody to swing the hammer. Fix that first and see what happens to prices.